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EUR / USD. December 19th. The trading system. "Regression Channels". What will be the rhetoric of the Fed?

4-hour timeframe

4yFZybnOs7SdkUQjRCtsHTKMh6HGWLbormwURpUPTechnical details:

The senior linear regression channel: direction - down.

The junior linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 108.5714

The currency pair EUR / USD on Wednesday, December 19, overcame the moving average line, it is highly expected, however, as we have repeatedly said that the euro's growth potential is limited. Moreover, today we are waiting for the Fed decision on a key rate, as well as comments of the Open Market Committee on monetary policy and a press conference. Definitely, there will be interesting information. At least the markets will be able to understand whether the performance of Jerome Powell, painted in "dove" color, was an accident, or is the Fed really ready to suspend the process of tightening monetary policy? The main intrigue of the day is the question of whether the Fed will raise the rate, given the recent statements by Donald Trump. Recall that in the past two days, Trump strongly put pressure on the Fed and Jerome Powell, saying that it is impossible to raise rates in the current environment. Fed Trump is not subject to, so we believe that the rate will be raised. If so, in the late afternoon, the demand for US currency may increase, but much will also depend on the rhetoric of the Fed representatives at a press conference. From a technical point of view, the pair can continue the upward movement, but, firstly, it will be difficult to break through the level of 1.1414, and, secondly, traders will have to consider the Fed's "pigeon" attitude in the evening, or the Fed should not raise the rate, which unlikely.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1353

S2 - 1.1292

S3 - 1.1230

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1,1414

R2 - 1.1475

R3 - 1.1536

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair continues to moderately upward. Thus, long positions are now relevant in small volumes with the goal of 1.1414. In the evening, on the eve of the results of the Fed meeting, it is recommended to set short stops for all positions.

Sell positions are recommended to be considered after the price is fixed back below the MA. In this case, the downward movement will be able to continue with the goal of 1.1292, which has already been worked out several times.

In addition to the technical picture, you should also consider the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The senior linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement.

The younger linear regression channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heikin Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com