According to the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), by 2040, the global demand for black gold will increase by 11.5 million barrels per day, reaching 106.3 million. Experts consider developing countries to be the catalyst for global growth.
Agency analysts are confident that in the 2030, the leadership among the largest consumers of oil will belong to China. In 2025, the demand for black gold in the Middle Kingdom will increase to 14.9 million barrels per day. In five years, the level of demand will reach 15.7 million barrels per day, and by 2040, 15.8 million barrels per day.
Currently, the primacy of the level of oil consumption remains with the United States. Experts predict that by 2025, the demand for black gold will drop to 17.8 million barrels per day. In five years, it will be reduced to 16.8 million barrels per day, and by 2035, to 15.6 million barrels per day. The IEA also revised its forecast for 2040 upwards by 15.1 million barrels per day.
Agency experts expect a strong increase in oil demand in the countries of the Middle East and India. In 2040, these states will occupy the third and fourth places in terms of consumption of black gold. Analysts do not exclude that after 2030, the countries of the Middle East will take leading positions in the production of petrochemical raw materials.
The IEA also lowered the forecast for black gold demand in Russia. Previously, it was expected to increase to 3.7 million barrels per day, and by 2023, up to 4 million barrels per day. However, agency experts expect a slowdown in growth. In 2025, the demand for oil in the Russian Federation will increase to 3.3 million barrels per day, and in 2035–2040, the figure will remain at 3.2 million barrels per day.
In developed countries, the demand for black gold in 23 years will decline by more than 10 million barrels per day, summarize the IEA.
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