Bitcoin analysis for 10/07/2018

A lot has been said about Bitcoin and its future. Many people have wondered whether the cryptocurrency will rise above its January value or will continue to decline. Here's a summary of how experts have been considering the matter in the last few months.

Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said that Bitcoin "was absolutely a bubble based on the introduction of futures in December and great enthusiasm for this asset". He also insisted that investors should be cautious because interest in cryptocurrency falls. According to him, it "kills" the possibility of new money appearing on the market.

Colas based his statements on trends in Google searches. According to him, Bitcoin recorded fewer searches compared to the end of 2017 - when the cryptocurrency reached a level of around $ 20,000. However, deliberately or not, he failed to touch the fact that interest in the technology underlying Bitcoin is growing.

According to Ran Neu-Ner, there were 27,000 Blockchain startups in 2017. In the first two quarters of 2018, this number has already been exceeded, reaching over 28,000. It is safe to say that interest in this field is far from a decline. On June 28, Neu-Ner said he believed the market would continue to fall:"Now, I bet the market will continue to fall and fall to around $5,350". Neu-Ner also said that "now is a great time to buy" if you believe in Bitcoin and/or Blockchain technology.

Chief economic advisor at Allianz, Mohamed El-Erian, raised the need for a consolidated base of people who "really believe" in Bitcoin. According to him, this is especially important now when prices are falling. He also added that the 2017 cryptocurrency rally was driven by a large number of investors who joined the already-believers in Bitcoin.

He shared his opinion that Bitcoin is a purchase under $ 5,000. El-Erian also said that he sees a future in which digital currencies are strong, but it would be necessary to involve the government in these currencies.

According to Arthur Hayes, the co-founder and CEO of Bitmex, we were able to achieve stability now. He says that with the fall in prices, we see a lot less instability. He describes this as a problem and involves great variability with greater chances of price jump: "You want as much volatility as possible to have the same chance that Bitcoin will reach $ 50,000, $ 100,000 or $ 1,000,000" - he argues. Hayes also maintains that the time needed for potential price increases will be shortened significantly due to the much greater investor involvement in the market. He also stressed that positive regulatory decisions can be a key factor in a sharp rise in prices: "We are dismissed by one positive regulatory decision, perhaps ETF approval by the SEC, to rise to $20,000 or even $50,000 by the end of the year" - he added.

The founder and CEO of a popular cryptocurrency trading company BKCM LLC and active trader Brian Kelly noticed that Bitcoin is not the only long-term investment possible. In June he stated that Ethereum performs slightly better in relation to the relative value. He also noted that while Bitcoin exceeded its lowest value in June 2018, Ethereum did not. "Considering relative value, Ethereum is a bit better than Bitcoin. So if I played long in this market, at this point I would bet on Ethereum" - he explained. Kelly, however, remains bullish in relation to Bitcoin. He also outlined several reasons why the largest cryptocurrency is far from death.

Tom Lee went ahead several months ago and announced the price of $25,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2018. He then repeated his position saying that Bitcoin is still a huge "asset of value" and the technology behind it works really well in terms of digital transactions. Just a few days ago Lee, who is now Managing Partner and Research Manager at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said he still thinks Bitcoin can reach $ 25,000 by the end of the year. His main argument is the growing difficulty in extracting Bitcoins: "The reason why Bitcoin looks really good is that the cost of extracting Bitcoin is about $ 7,000, and the difficulty is growing. So by the end of the year, it will be $9,000" - he says.

Well, everyone has its point of view, but the time and market will tell who was right and who was wrong. Stay tuned!

Let's now take a look at the Bitcoin technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is quietly trading inside of the horizontal range between the levels of $6,809 - $6,400, just around the weekly pivot at $6,607. The bulls are too weak to break through the technical resistance at the level of $6,809 (top of the range). The nearest technical support is seen at the level of $6,334 (low of the range). Breakout lower will open the road towards the level of $6,064 and $5,900.

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