Global macro overview for 13/04/2018

Global macro overview for 13/04/2018:

Market sentiment at the end of the week remains good. Although the risks associated with the trade war and geopolitics (Syria) are still present, the last 24 hours bring rather calming comments, which supports the risk appetite. However, a weekend is coming, where something can always happen, so there are chances the global investors will take the profits off the table just for the peace of mind.

For now, however, Europe is trying to capture the USD/JPY breakdown over 107.50, as well as the AUD / USD output above the 0.7770 / 80 zone. If these barriers remain "underneath" after the weekend, it will open the way for further increases. Both movements are consistent with the strengthening of risk appetite and the rejection of fears about conflicts between the US-China and US-Russia. The race over import tariffs has now subsided and, as President Trump put it, yesterday, talks with China are "going well" and the USA is making "progress." The same Trump withdrew from his tweeter threats to Russia regarding the launch of rockets over Syria, which was also confirmed by US secretary of defense Mattis, according to which "the US does not intend to participate in the civil war in Syria. In general, therefore, things seem to go in the right direction, which encourages the toning of nerves. On the other hand, the upcoming weekend is always a period when investors are less willing to hold positions, after all, markets may not work then, but politicians and soldiers are active. Belaying profits this afternoon is not an exclusion, which on Monday in an optimistic case may also give a short moment to catch better levels.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has made a new higher high at the level of 1.4295 with strong momentum. Nevertheless, the market conditions are now overbought, so the price might start to consolidate the recent gains in a tight zone between the levels of 1.4247 - 1.4295. The next target for bulls is the January swing high at the level of 1.4346, which has not been challenged yet.


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