Global macro overview for 12/02/2018

The worst week from March last year was on the horizon for Crude Oil, when after the months of incoming upward news, the US production increased sharply, and there was a seasonal drop in demand from refineries. It forced the cash managers to reduce the long-standing position that is no longer possible to maintain. Although, as a result of production cuts, supply disruptions, and strong demand, fundamental forecasts have improved over the last six months, one can now ask whether USD 70 per barrel was not one step too far at this stage.

The efforts of the OPEC cartel to limit global production in order to increase prices have intensified again. Once again, the reaction from non-OPEC producers surprised the market. In the last monthly forecast, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) raised the forecasted level of oil production in the United States. After breaking the level of 10 million barrels a day, the Administration expects that in November this year - one year earlier than expected - the US production will exceed 11 million barrels a day. The sale accelerated after the publication of the weekly inventory report in the United States, which showed an increase for the second week in a row. This is another proof that the markets are entering a period of seasonal decline in demand from the refinery due to conservation work; this period usually lasts until April. The estimated weekly oil production was increased by 332,000 barrels per day to the level of 10.25 million barrels per day, thus surpassing production in Saudi Arabia for the first time since 1990.

Despite contributing to the sharp rise in global oil prices since June last year, Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members together with Russia are now beginning to pay the price for these activities in the form of a loss of market share to non-OPEC producers. In the short-term perspective, the risk of falling prices as a result of the above-mentioned non-OPEC production is more important.

Let's now take a look at the Crude Oil technical picture at the H4 time frame. The price has dropped towards the level of 58.06 and then tried to bounce to test the golden channel lower line, but so far failed to rally higher. The technical resistance at the level of 61.08 is still too strong for bulls, even despite oversold market conditions. The main support still lies at the level of 58.55 - 59.04.

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