Global macro overview for 20/11/2017

It looks like this week's most important event is Thursday's Thanksgiving Day in the US, which has implications for the global market. The week will be shorter, so traders and investors in the US will leave for home early. This situation would mean a lack of incentives to play long-term subjects, and even short-term speculation may be rare. Especially on the USD side, there will be a shortage of data generated anchors. The macro calendar is light in key events releases, and progress on the tax bill in the US Congress is halted, as congressmen leave Washington for the holidays as well. The only chance for the US Dollar to appreciate is a further development of political risk in Europe. Since EUR has a dominant (58%) share in the basket forming the DXY dollar index, the EUR/USD rollover with the DXY signal could revive the strengthening of the Dollar on other crosses. Without it, there is a week without fresh impulses on financial markets that can improve the position of the Dollar.

Let's now take a look at the US Dollar Index technical picture at the H4 time frame. As indicated earlier, the market remains locked inside of the trading zone between the levels of 93.39 - 94.03 and the key level for the upside is still the technical resistance at the level of 94.47. As long as the price stays below the golden trend line the overall outlook remains bearish.

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