Global macro overview for 05/05/2017:
The Reserve Bank of Australia released its Monetary Policy Statement overnight. As we remember, the RBA voted earlier this week to keep interest rates unchanged at the level of 1.5%, a decision that was in line with the consensus. The policy has been on hold since August as officials seek to stimulate inflation and economic growth. In the official statement, the RBA projects the GDP to average between 2.5% - 3.5% during the next two years. The inflation is expected to increase in the coming years, and the first clues for this assumption comes with the annual CPI inflation acceleration in the first quarter of 2017 to 2.1%. In conclusion, the overall tone of the statement was rather hawkish with positive and optimistic GDP and CPI forecasts for the period of 2017-2018.
Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market has hit the 61%Fibo at the level of 0.7384 and now is trying to bounce from this level. This view is supported by the oversold trading conditions and visible bullish divergence between the price and the momentum indicator. The next resistance is seen at the level of 0.7415 and 0.7438. The next support is seen at the level of 0.7368.
