Global macro overview for 02/12/2016:
The key fundamental data of the week, the US non-farm employment change report, is scheduled to be released at 01:30 pm GMT today. However, all eyes are on the Sunday's risk events: Italy's referendum and Austria's tight presidential election. The latest median forecast for nonfarm payroll increase in November calls for 177K – slightly higher than a rise of 161K in October. Clearly enough that the Federal Reserve will proceed with its interest rate hike. Moreover, the US unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 4.9% and average hourly wages to rise by 0.2% from a month ago.The odds of the Fed hiking rates at its December meeting are almost 100% according to the CME FedWatch Tool. In conclusion, even if today's jobs data misses some arbitrary threshold level, the Fed is likely to make a move in December.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the 4H time frame ahead of the NFP release. Bulls have managed to break out of the triangle slightly, but the technical resistance at 1.0687 has capped the rally. The market got back to the trading range as it awaits the data release.
