Global macro overview for 02/11/2016:
The main fundamental event for today is FOMC interest rate decision and statement. Global investors do not expect any change in the interest rate today, so the 0.50% level should be left as it is. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of any interest rate hike today is only 7.2%, so again market participants do not foresee any specific moves from FED today, but the regulator remains on track to raise rates at next month's meeting on December 14. Nevertheless, it will be interesting to read through today's statement for clues about next steps.The most important hints might come from any improvements in the FED's assessment of the economy. Any positive comments will be considered as a subtle signal for a hike next month.
Let's now take a look at the US Dollar technical picture at the daily time frame before the FOMC data release. The bears have managed to break out below the important support at the level of 97.57, but the daily candle is not closed yet. Any form of a hammer or any form of a candle with a long tail will be considered as a false downside breakout and the bulls might be able to re-gain the control over this market again. In case of a bullish failure, the next support is seen at the level of 97.19.
