Global macro overview for 18/05/2016:
The most important event of the week has arrived as the market participants will have a chance to get an insight into the latest FOMC meeting minutes today at 06:00pm GMT. After the meeting on April 27, the Fed released a statement that downgraded some overseas risks, but admitted to a slowdown in the US economy. The strong employment and retail sales data show that the first quarter slowdown could be temporary. Putting the June FOMC back on the table is still premature but positive inflation growth may make the case for a summer interest rate hike more compelling. In conclusion, the current Fed Funds Futures probability of a June rate hike is lower than 4%, but any hawkish statements in the minutes might change this situation in a blink of an eye.
Let's now take a look at US dollar technical picture on daily time frame. The consecutive sequence of lower lows and lower high from the top at 100.50 might be terminated today if the dollar bulls break above the supply zone at the 94.90 - 95.21 levels. Otherwise, the bear camp will push the prices lower, affirming their control overt this market.
