Global macro overview for 27/01/2016:
The main fundamental event of the week, the FOMC rate decision and rate statement, is scheduled for release at 07:00pm GMT today. The main question that all market participants are asking is whether the Fed hikes the short-term interest rate again this month? The economists anticipate at least four rate hikes this year, so any indication that the rate tightening cycle is going to be slower could have a significant impact on the markets. So far market participants expects no hike this month from the level of 0.5% as the Fed might by in wait-and-see mode since the historical December rate hike. Nevertheless, any unexpected rate hike will cause instant US dollar appreciation.
The markets are flat ahead of the Fed's decision. The technical picture of the US dollar index still looks bullish with no signs or a trend reversal yet. On a daily time frame, prices are still moving above 50,100 and 200 DMA, inside of a bullish channel, so buying on dips after the Fed decision seems to be the way to trade in this market. The next support is seen at the level of 97.18 and the next resistance is seen at the level of 99.98.
