At yesterday's session, after the speech of FOMC member Williams, the euro pared half of intraday gains. He is confident for earlier rate hike with gradual increases. This statement ignites hope for rate hike in June. He said, "The decision to raise rates is actually three decisions: Not just when, but how quickly and how high. I see a safer course in a gradual increase, and that calls for starting a bit earlier". On the euro front, Greece has to reach a reform deal with international creditors until June. Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis noted that the Greece's liquidity problem is a “terribly urgent issue". Greek exit from the eurozone will influence the economy. According to the Moody's forecast, the euro area is expected to demonstrate an annual increase of 1.5% in 2016. Greece made € 750 million repayment to the International Monetary Fund.
Upcoming events: The euro macro calendar offered a data-heavy day. French, Italy and German prelim GDP q/q, French prelim non-farm pay roll q/q and French CPI m/m, German final CPI m/m, Flash GDP q/q, Industrial production m/m, and ECB monetary policy meeting accounts are due. Besides, UD retail and core retail sales data are due today. We expect German GDP to be in the expansion side and data from Italy and France are to be stagnant.
Technical view: The pair managed to trade above 100Dsma and was rejected at 100Dema at 1.1290 again. The pair has been facing strong resistance at 100Dema. It was rejected at 1.1290. It's not a good sign for bulls. The pair made a higher low of 1.1135 at yesterday's session. Immediate support is found at 1.1200 100Dsma. The pair will be weak in case the price goes below 1.1200 towards 1.1130 and 1.1110.0. Before the pair spiked towards 1.1278, it spent almost 24 hours at 1.1133. This consolidation period signed as a higher low. The selling pressure will be applied below 1.1100 towards 1.1060. The strong base is found between 1.1050 and 1.1030. A daily close is expected below 1.1030. The 20Dsma is found at 1.1030 and 50Dsma 1.0875. Resistance levels are seen at 1.1290 100Dema and 1.1330/1.1350.
Intraday view: The price has been hovering at 1.1200. The price is likely to re-test the level of 1.1130 before making another high. The multi-resistance level is seen at 1.1290. At the Asian session, the pair found the support at 100Dsma 1.1200 trading at 1.1218. The weakness persists below 1.1200 towards 1.1150 and 1.1135 initially. The bears are back on the track below 1.1110 rounded to 1.1100. The selling pressure is likely to be applied below 1.1110 towards 1.1070, 1.1050/1.1030. Intraday resistance is seen at 1.1225 and 1.1250. Strong momentum is expected above 1.1250 towards 1.1290 and 1.1330/1.1350. Amid the reports, we recommend buying above 1.1225 and safe buying above 1.1250 and selling below 1.1200 with targets at 1.1150 and 1.1135 on the bearish front.
Trade: Selling below 1.1200
Safe buying above 1.1250
To contact the author of this analysis, please email- joseph.wind@analytics.instaforex.com
