Fundamental Outlook:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting a two-week high of 120.45 on Tuesday. USD/JPY is underpinned by positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 97.91 versus 97.07 early Tuesday) as more-than-expected 5.133 million US February job openings (versus forecast 5.01 million), a rise in US IBD/TIPP economic optimism index to 51.3 in April from 49.1 in March, and larger-than-expected $15.52 billion increase in US February consumer credit (versus forecast +$12.0 billion) bolster belief that last Friday's weak US March non-farm payrolls report was an aberration and that the US economy will regain momentum after the first quarter. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by the Japan exporter sales and selling of the yen crosses amid diminished risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 0.27% to 14.78, S&P 500 closed 0.21% lower at 2,076.33 overnight).
Technical comment:
The daily chart is mixed as the MACD is in bearish mode but stochastics is neutral, a five-day moving average is meandering sideways below a declining 15-day moving average.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.35 and the second target at 120.80. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.35. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 117.60. The pivot point is at 119.05.
Resistance levels:
120.45
120.90
121.35
Support levels:
118.50
118
117.50
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
