Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to trade in lower range. It is undermined by the flows to haven JPY and unwinding of JPY-funded carry trades amid increased risk aversion (VIX fear gauge rose 11.97% to 19.92, S&P 500 closed 1.83% lower at 2,020.58 overnight) as concerns mount over a possible Greek exit from the eurozone, while a renewed slide in oil prices to fresh five-and-a-half year lows and news that German inflation had fallen to a five-year low in December raised an uncertain global growth outlook. USD/JPY is also weighed by the lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.035% versus 2.123% late Friday) and Japan exporter sales. But USD/JPY losses are tempered by the demand from Japan importers, Bank of Japan's large-scale monetary easing policy and bullish USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index hit nine-year high 91.775 Monday, last at 91.39) amid expectations that the U.S. economy will pull ahead of the rest of the world this year and that the Federal Reserve would start raising interest rates in coming months ahead of other major central banks and jump in U.S. ISM-NY business index to 70.8 in December from 62.4 in November.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish, stochastics is turning bearish at overbought levels, but five-day moving average is meandering sideways above rising 15-day moving average.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 120.30 and the second target at 120.75. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 118.80. A break of this target would push the pair further downward and one may expect the second target at 118.30. The pivot point is at 119.90.
Resistance levels:
120.30
120.75
121
Support levels:
118.80
118.30
118
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