To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:
A fairly good signal was formed for selling the British pound last Friday, which I noticed in my review for the afternoon. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bears were active after GBP/USD fell to the level of 1.2395, which resulted in a sharp sell-off to the support area of 1.2334, where I advise you to open long positions. At the moment, the task of pound buyers is to return the resistance of 1.2395, since quite a lot depends on this level. If bulls are able to cope with this area after the Bank of England governor gives his speech, then after consolidating above this level, you can look at long positions to continue the growth of GBP/USD to the area of a high of 1.2463 I recommend taking profits. The long-term goal is to test the 1.2536 area. In case the pound falls in the morning, buyers will need to protect support at 1.2334, forming a false breakout there will be a signal to buy the pound. If there is no activity on the part of the bulls, it is best to postpone long positions until the low of 1.2290 and 1.2237 is updated and open long positions from there immediately for a rebound while expecting a correction of 30-40 points within the day.
To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:
Pound sellers should not postpone their return to the market, as Friday's downward movement may indicate the completion of the bearish market formed on June 10 this year. Protecting resistance at 1.2395 and forming a false breakout on it will be a signal to open short positions, the main purpose of which will be a break and consolidation below support 1.2334 in the morning. Such a scenario will be an additional signal to sell GBP/USD based on the continuation of the bearish market, which will cause the pair to test the lows of 1.2290 and 1.2237, where I recommend taking profits. If sellers don't take active steps in the resistance area of 1.2395, it is best to postpone short positions until the high of 1.2463 is updated with the aim of a correction of 30-40 points within the day.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a further decline in the pound.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger bands
A break of the lower border of the indicator at 1.2313 will increase pressure on the pound. You can count on upward correction only after a breakout of the upper boundary of the indicator in the region of 1.2395.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - Moving Average Convergence / Divergence). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9.
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20.
- Non-commercial traders are speculators, such as individual traders, hedge funds and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of nonprofit traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of nonprofit traders.
- The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-profit traders.
