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We expect a local weakening of the dollar (selling the USDCAD pair and buying the AUDUSD pair)

The markets' attention in the new week will focus on the outcome of the Fed's meeting on monetary policy. Investors will be interested in the regulator's view on the state of the US economy, as well as the prospects for a possible reduction in interest rates.

Earlier, the opinion was that the Fed would have to lower interest rates this year, on the one hand, under pressure from conflicting economic data, and on the other, under pressure from D. Trump, who wants the bank to start the process of lowering interest rates to simulate, as he believes, economic growth in the country. But in fact, the US president needs to create the conditions for the continued unrestrained growth of the local stock market, the upward dynamics of which coincide with its rating. Therefore, investors are still highly likely to allow the return of the "dovish" policy of the Federal Reserve, which is the main reason for the rise in US stock indices.

An additional positive factor is the preservation of positive expectations from the outcome of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. The next round begins this week. It is likely that the market will traditionally respond positively to this very fact, and not on the result, which is not clear.

Assessing the overall market picture and investor sentiment, we note that, in general, positive expectations remain, which, in our opinion, can support the demand for risky assets and contribute to the local weakening of the US dollar in the forex market. But again, this dynamics will probably remain local, since we regard the existing positive in the markets as cautious. It can be deflated at any time, and then the decline in the dollar exchange rate may again change to its growth.

In general, we still believe that the uncertainty factor will dominate in the markets, which will have an overwhelming effect on investors' desire to be active. It is likely that the local growth of stock indices in the United States will continue to correlate with the fall in market volumes. Volatility in the foreign exchange markets will also remain extremely low.

Forecast of the day:

The AUDUSD pair is actively recovering in the wake of new reports on the resumption of trade talks between the United States and China. If the pair rises above the level of 0.7060, it will continue its growth to 0.7125

The USDCAD pair is trading below 1.3455. If oil prices stop its decline, and the general weakening of the dollar continues, we should expect the pair to decline to 1.3350, but for this it needs to consolidate below 1.3455.

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The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com