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Wave analysis of GBP/USD for July 7. Fed protocol may provide answers to questions about the timing of monetary policy easing


The wave counting for the Pound/Dollar instrument looks very similar to the wave counting on the Euro/Dollar instrument, but there are still some differences. It can be assumed that all recent movements of both instruments were formed on the basis of exactly the same news background and factors. However, if the Euro/Dollar instrument continued to decline today under its previous low, then the Pound/Dollar instrument has so far refrained from this. The pound sterling is more inclined to decline today and has already lost about 65 basis points from the high of the day. Another thing is that the high of the day was much higher than the opening point of the day. That is, at the moment, the quotes of the instrument are not much lower than the opening level. Nevertheless, the pound continues to be in decline, so the supposed wave c is likely to take on a more complex and extended form. Unfortunately, the wave c for the British currency can also take almost any form. It is only necessary to look at the internal structure of the assumed wave a to understand how complex the internal set of waves can be and how unreadable. Therefore, I recommend paying more attention to the higher order of waves now.

The Pound/Dollar instrument first gained 60 basis points on Wednesday, and then lost about 65. Unlike yesterday, there was not a single report or other event that could affect the currency markets today. But they found grounds for more or less active movements, and the demand for the US dollar rose again in the afternoon. Nevertheless, today there is a certain reason for buying the American currency.

The Fed is set to publish the minutes of the last meeting, in which the markets will try to see hints at the timing of the tapering of the program to support the US economy. Let me remind you that the last meeting of the Fed was just marked by the beginning of the discussion on the tapering of the QE program. Of course, Jerome Powell and the company did not state this directly, but only hinted. However, now the markets want to know whether the Fed is really going to start discussing the end of the support program. And if so, when?

The likelihood of an increase in the Fed's interest rate in the next two years is also now growing. Many experts even believe that the rate will be increased three times over the next two years. Thus, any hints of a rate hike will also be regarded as a signal of increased demand for the dollar. Perhaps the American currency is already growing on the expectations of hawkish surprises.

At this time, the wave pattern has become a little clearer. The supposed waves a and b are completed, but wave c will get more complicated. As the Euro/Dollar instrument continues to decline, it is likely that the pound will follow. Thus, I recommend now selling the instrument again with targets located around 1.3645, which corresponds to 38.2% Fibonacci, for each MACD downward signal.


The upward part of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken on a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. However, the wave counting still looks rather difficult, as there is no impulse movement now. At this time, presumably, the construction of a downward trend section continues, so we can expect a decline in quotes in the future to the lows of waves c and b.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -