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Wave analysis of EUR/USD for July 26. Markets await Fed meeting after lack of support from recent ECB meeting


The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the Euro/Dollar instrument has not changed at all in recent days and remains quite ambiguous and frankly complex. This is particularly true for the internal structure of the last descending wave. At the higher scale, the wave pattern is more or less clear. At this time, wave c presumably continues its construction. The decline in quotes continues, but it is still very difficult to trade since most of the internal waves do not exceed 100-120 points or even less, and the ascending and descending waves constantly alternate. Any wave in the current wave structure can take on a more complex form at almost any time, so the wave count does not answer the question of how long the decline in the quotes of the instrument will continue. In addition, the last waves were almost horizontal, which further worsens trading conditions.

In the current situation, I recommend paying closer attention to the Fibonacci levels, as well as looking for one hundred percent confirmation that the current wave/trend section is completed. The current size of wave c is only slightly smaller than wave a. Thus, we can expect a decline in quotes with targets located near the Fibonacci levels of 100.0% and 127.2%.

There was no news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument on Monday. During the day, there was not a single interesting event or economic report that the markets could react to. However, over the past few weeks, the markets as a whole have been interacting very poorly with the news background. Last week, it was practically absent, but, even such an important event as the ECB meeting and the speech of Christine Lagarde could not move the instrument from its place. Thus, the news background is now weak and the markets do not show much desire to pay attention to it. Therefore, based on the news background and the nature of the instrument's movement in recent weeks, I even believe that the construction of the descending wave c may be nearing its completion. However, the markets are not in a hurry to increase demand for the European currency.

Given that the Fed meeting and Jerome Powell's speech will take place this week, it is likely that the markets will not take any active actions until Wednesday evening. If so, then it is on Wednesday evening that the issue of the completion or continuation of wave c will be resolved. I believe that the Fed may once again cause a decline in the instrument since it is unlikely to abandon the rhetoric of tapering the QE program. Nevertheless, this meeting of the Central Bank is a very important event, surprises are possible.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the descending wave c can be completed soon. However, wave c is constantly becoming more complicated, so I recommend waiting for a decline to the 100.0% Fibonacci level. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.1704 mark may indicate the completion of the entire downward trend section. Also, a successful attempt to close above the 76.4% Fibonacci level, which corresponds to 1.1836, can indirectly indicate the readiness of the markets to buy the instrument.


The wave counting of the new downward trend section is not quite unambiguous, but at this time, presumably, it is completed or is nearing its completion and has adopted a three-wave structure. Thus, now I expect the construction of a new minimum three-wave upward trend section.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -