Wave analysis of GBP/USD on June 14


The wave counting for the Pound/Dollar instrument has not changed at all in recent weeks. The sterling has been in a side-channel for a long time already strictly below the 0.0% Fibonacci level and remains there for now. Even today's rise in the instrument by 100 basis points in the second half of the day did not have much effect on the wave counting. Thus, after the supposed wave e has completed its construction, corrective wave structures continue, which are still very difficult to attribute to any particular wave of a higher scale. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 0.0% Fibonacci level indirectly indicates the completion of not only the last upward wave, but also the entire upward trend section. On the other hand, the wave counting of the upward trend can still take on a more complex form, and weak demand for the dollar only increases the chances of a further increase in quotes in the end. A successful attempt to break through the 0.0% Fibonacci level will lead to a complication of the upward set of waves.

The Pound/Dollar instrument fell by 80 basis points during Friday, exactly repeating the movement of the Euro/Dollar instrument. Nevertheless, as I said above, trading continues in a narrow horizontal range, and its internal wave counting defies analysis. On Friday, markets followed closely the April GDP figures in the UK, as well as the data on industrial production. I must say that the GDP report did not disappoint, as it showed economic growth by 2.3% on a monthly basis. However, industrial production was disappointing, as it contracted in size by 1.3%. Although, I do not think that it was because of this report that the quotes fell on Friday, given that they are declining every other day in the last month as part of the same horizontal movement. This week, the markets will expect several important statistics from the UK and the US. I have already said that the most important event of the week is the Fed meeting. Although it may become the main disappointment of the week, as few people now believe that the FOMC will cut the bond purchase program. FOMC members have repeatedly stated that the American economy is recovering very unevenly, and the labor market is still very far from the indicators of 2019. Consequently, the Fed expects to further stimulate the economy. If so, then in the coming months there is no need to think about cutting the QE program. But tomorrow morning in Britain, there will be reports on unemployment and retail trade. And during the day, there will be a speech by Andrew Bailey and a report on retail sales in the United States.

At this time, the wave pattern continues to be twofold. The sterling continues to move almost horizontally. It is still unclear whether the proposed wave e has completed its construction. I have already recommended selling the instrument with a protective order above 1.4240, which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci. And if the level of 1.4240 is broken, buy. This strategy has not changed at this time. Considering that the instrument does not make any attempts to break through the 1.4240 mark, one can simply remain in sales with the Stop Loss set above 1.4240.


The upward trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, is taking on a rather ambiguous form. As I said above, several wave counting options are possible at once. Unfortunately, different options offer different further developments. Therefore, it may be necessary to wait for some time for the current wave counting to clear up a little.

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