Wave analysis of EUR/USD for June 16


The wave counting on the 4-hour chart for the Euro/Dollar instrument is getting more complicated and may require adjustments and additions in the near future. Supposed wave 4 of the upward trend has already assumed a five-wave form and does not fit into the current wave counting. Thus, the entire section of the trend starting on March 31, most likely, will nevertheless take on a three-wave form. If this assumption is correct, then the decline in quotes, which began on May 25, is already taking place within the framework of a new downward trend, which is also likely to take on a three-wave form. If this is true, then at this time, the first wave (1 or a) of a new downward trend is being built, and its targets are located between the 19th and 20th figures. It should also be noted that it does not even matter which wave is being built now since its internal wave counting is not impulsive. Therefore, in certain situations, this wave may already be completed. Thus, the current wave counting is not unambiguous. Let me remind you that the wave counting should be such that it is convenient to work and earn money on it.

The news background on Wednesday was very weak, to say the least. Not a single important report was released either in the European Union or in America. Thus, the markets have already fully focused their attention on the evening summing up the results of the Fed meeting. The amplitude of the instrument's movement at the moment is only 12-13 points, the market activity is practically zero. Therefore, I am also fully focused on the Fed's evening meeting. While few are expecting any changes in monetary policy, some important information may still emerge. The Fed should provide information on forecasts for key indicators such as GDP and inflation for the coming years. Based on these forecasts, it will be possible to conclude whether the expectations of the FOMC representatives have improved or worsened. The labor market and inflation indicators deserve separate comments. Let me remind you that at the end of May, the consumer price index in the United States rose to 5.0%, while the markets were already pretty nervous when inflation was about 4.0%. The labor market is also a very important topic. Also, the Fed will begin to change the parameters of monetary policy, in its own words, when the labor market is close to its pre-crisis levels. At this time, it is still impossible to conclude that the labor market is close to these indicators. The last two Nonfarm Payrolls reports were below the forecasted values, so it is unlikely that Jerome Powell will turn the markets' attention to a strong recovery in the labor market. Thus, personally, I do not expect hawkish rhetoric.

Based on the analysis, I still expect the instrument quotes to go up, but now I probably need to wait until the current wave completes its construction, since it is very difficult to understand which wave structure it belongs to. At this time, the wave pattern is such that the construction of the upward trend section may resume, or the construction of a new three-wave downward trend may begin.


The wave counting of the new upward trend section is not entirely unambiguous. Initially, the area looked impulsive, and this was logical after the construction of a three-wave correction. However, now it may turn out that the last drop in quotes may be the beginning of a new corrective structure - a downward one. Or the entire upward trend will take on a five-wave correction.

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