Forecast for EUR/USD on June 17, 2021


The Federal Reserve held its monetary policy meeting yesterday. These results, the general mood of the FOMC members, turned out to be even more hawkish than what market participants expected. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell focused on inflation after the meeting. He acknowledged that there were more reasons for influencing it than the committee had previously expected, that inflation is growing faster than expected, and that there is a danger of its constant pressure. As a result, the FOMC now expects two hikes in 2023, and 7 out of 18 committee members are ready to raise the rate once in 2022.


Yesterday, the euro stopped falling at 1.1986, the May 5 low. The same level was the 11 m resistance on March 18th. On the daily chart, the Marlin oscillator slightly turns to the upside, perhaps before a decisive attack on the lower border of the price channel (1.1940), the price will gather a little - correct and consolidate. The basis for such a correction may be today's inflation data in the eurozone - the CPI forecast for May is expected to grow from 1.6% y/y to 2.0% y/y.


The Marlin oscillator is turning up from the oversold zone on the four-hour chart. After the oscillator is discharged, it will be ready to decrease.

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