Wave counting analysis:
On Wednesday, February 20, trading ended for EUR / USD with a final decline of several bp. The attempt to break through the level of 23.6% on the older Fibonacci grid was unsuccessful. This indicates the pair's readiness to decline and, accordingly, to build a new downward wave. If this is indeed the case, then from the current positions the instrument, it may rush further down as part of building the expected wave 5 of the downward trend segment, thus, assumes the formation of a triangle. If the pair finds the strength to execute a breakthrough level of 23.6%, the euro will be able to grow to the level of 61.8% on the small Fibonacci grid. Yesterday's Fed minutes gave food for thought to traders about the possible completion of sales of assets on the balance sheet in 2019. However, there was no negative impact on the pair.
Sales targets:
1.1228 - 0.0% Fibonacci
1.1215 - 0.0% Fibonacci
Shopping goals:
1.1356 - 23.6% Fibonacci
1.1408 - 61.8% Fibonacci
General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The pair is supposedly nearing completion of wave 4 construction. Thus, if the level of 23.6% holds, then I recommend selling the pair to build wave 5 of the downtrend trend with targets located near the estimated levels of 1.1228 and 1.1215. Small purchases of the pair can be made if another attempt at a breakthrough of 23.6% is successful.
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