For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar showed low volatility. However, it is noteworthy that it was only in the upward direction. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see a breakdown of the upper limit of the 1.3000 cluster, and after that, the quote has increased from the psychological level of 1.3000. For information and news background: a possible postponement of Brexit, which was already expressed by Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, wherein he stated; "We discussed a number of legal issues, including the possibility of a delay. I believe that the EU is waiting for the chaotic Brexit, or it will be necessary to extend the negotiations, because there is no unity in the House of Commons. I explained this to Ms. May, but apparently she continues to believe that she will be able to convince the deputies without delay. " In turn, the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, voiced out the possible risks in the event of the country's exit without a deal.
Today, the focus is on Theresa May's performance, where you can expect everything. But if you really talk about the postponement, then the pound on this news can safely continue to grow. At the same time, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak in Congress, however, the meeting is dedicated to cyber security. Thus, you should not expect anything from him.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see some rush growth in anticipation of the performance of Theresa May, where the previously holding cluster of 1.3020 / 1.3100 was broken through. It is hard to say whether the bull mood will persist, as there is now speculation, and if the truth in Theresa's speech comes to a postponement, we will easily extend the quotation to 1.3200. Otherwise, if the rhetoric of the Prime Minister remains the same, we will return back to the confines of the 1.3020 / 1.3000 cluster.
Based on the available data, it is possible to expand a number of variations. Let's consider them:
- Positions to buy, as written in the previous review, traders considered the point 1.3115 for laying long positions. If we do not have deals, then it is possible to take the current maximum of the day and try to enter above it. If the perspective remain unchanged, the first point will be at 1.3200 level.
- We consider selling positions in two versions: the first is already in the case of mining the level of 1.3200; the second is in the case of the loss of the current upward mood and fixation below 1.3100.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different sector of time frames (TF), we see that there is an upward interest in the short, intraday, and medium term. Meanwhile, in anticipation of Theresa May's performance, indicators on smaller TFs can change arbitrarily.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(February 26 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 68 points. At the time of Theresa May's performance, volatility may increase.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1,3200 *; 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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