24-hour timeframe
The first month of 2019 for the European currency can not be called either positive or negative. After another serious fall of the euro against the US currency, it was possible to recover by no more than 50%, after which the pair returned to its lows in a few years. At the moment, on the 24-hour timeframe, there are 5 minimum lows that can be traced approximately at the same price values. This suggests only one thing: sellers when approaching these levels becomes sharply less. The pair fails to form an uptrend for very objective reasons. There is simply not enough positive news from the European Union. The "divorce" process with the UK is not completed and it is unknown how it will end, the macroeconomic indicators of the bloc in recent months are falling, as Mario Draghi has repeatedly said. There is no talk of any tightening of monetary policy in Europe. In addition, it is not known whether the trade conflict with the United States, which gladly express claims to all the countries with which they trade, will receive a new turn. All this leads to the fact that the euro fails to show serious growth. Of course, such a situation is possible, as in recent weeks with a pound sterling. There, the British currency also has few grounds for growth, nevertheless, the currency is growing. But so far, in the long term, it is difficult to expect an upward movement above the level of 1,1500. From a technical point of view, the correction against the "dead cross" began, which may end near the critical line. However, it will also be extremely difficult for the pair to gain a foothold below 1.1250.
Trading recommendations:
It will be possible to count on a continuation of the upward movement in case the Kijun-sen line has been overcome. In this case, long positions will become relevant with the target resistance level of 1.1533. It is recommended to return to short positions in case of price rebound from the critical line, with the target of 1.1317.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen-red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com