The Sunday EU summit presented no surprises. After Spain withdrew its demands for revising the draft agreement on Saturday, the meeting turned into a mere formality. The leaders of the Alliance countries supported the deal and handed over the baton to the British Parliament. Now, it has to approve (or not approve) the agreed agreement.
It is worth noting that the Spaniards kept the intrigue almost until the last moment, putting at risk all the preliminary agreements. Madrid reasonably decided that for the first time in many years, it had gained effective leverage in the negotiations on the issue of Gibraltar. So the situation remained "in the balance" until Saturday evening. By the way, they practically achieved their goal. The British agreed to conduct direct consultations on the disputed territory, and not within the framework of general negotiations with the EU. Although the text of the transaction was not rewritten (in this case, London would have to be re-negotiated with the ministers), the Prime Minister of Spain received the appropriate guarantees. Theresa May's given curtsy allowed the barrier to the summit to be lifted, but it's still going around in London, where the deputies of the British parliament are concerned about the fate of Gibraltar as much as the Spaniards.
British Prime Minister is aware of this fact and does not hide it. At the end of the summit, she made a speech, where concerns about the future fate of the transaction were held in a red thread. Numerous protests, which took place in many cities in Britain, suggest that Theresa May will have to pass the main test in the House of Commons. Not only the Laborists, but also the supporters of the "hard" Brexit, whose interests are represented in the parliament by a considerable number of conservatives, protested against the draft deal.
That is why the pound almost did not respond to the events of the weekend. If the Spaniards really frustrated the summit, the Briton would have collapsed into several figures. In this case, the probability of the chaotic Brexit increased in many ways. But events unfolded in the outline of the most predictable scenario, so the pound remained in its previous positions, awaiting parliamentary battles.
So, the draft transaction was approved by British ministers and leaders of the EU countries. What's next? There are several obstacles to the orderly Brexit. The most difficult barrier is the British Parliament. According to preliminary information, the deputies will consider the agreement on December 10-12, although this date may vary (but in any case, May will submit this issue for consideration before the Catholic Christmas, that is, until December 25). Rumors about the prospects for a vote are growing like a snowball. According to one information, some conservatives and individual ministers are preparing an alternative draft agreement, which will be offered to Brussels after a failed vote. According to other information, deputies do not exclude the holding of a repeated referendum, despite the mass of legal conflicts that will arise during the implementation of this scenario. There are more "exotic" versions, but most information sources claim that the House of Commons will not approve the proposed deal.
However, similar rumors preceded each of the key polls, and as a result, May won a political war. Brussels has already warned that there will be no negotiations on this deal. Therefore, if the deputies do not support it, the parties will return to the zero level. The European Union categorically will not accept any lightning "plans B". It is obvious that the British Prime Minister will put pressure on this circumstance, putting the parliamentarians in front of a simple and uncomplicated choice. Either they support the deal with all its flaws, or they take responsibility for the chaotic Brexit. All other scenarios look too unlikely.
In other words, if the deputies fail in voting in December, the probability of a tough Brexit will increase to the maximum. If the deputies do not dare to plunge the country into economic chaos and still support the agreement, then the Europeans will have the last word. So, the European Parliament by simple majority should support the draft law on the Agreement on the withdrawal of Britain from the European Union. After the European Parliament, there will be another stage, the EU Council. 20 countries that must represent at least 65% of the population of the European Union should support the above transaction. Only after that the "soft" Brexit will really become a reality.
Naturally, the pound in the coming weeks will respond to newspaper headlines, comments by British politicians and ministers. This behavior of the currency has become traditional on the eve of important voting in parliament. This is a very difficult period for trading currency pairs involving the pound, too unpredictable price movements in the face of informational hype.
In my opinion, the chances of mild Brexit are still quite high, despite loud statements by opponents of May. It is worth recalling here that a week and a half ago, deputies once again collected signatures to launch a vote of no confidence in the premier. Against the background of a storm of criticism and indignation about the deal approved by the ministers, against the background of unexpected resignations, the conservatives could not find the required 48 votes. This suggests that Theresa May's position in parliament is not as weak as her opponents try to present.
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