Trading plan for 25/05/2017:
Not much volatility on financial markets during the night takes place, but the US Dollar is losing ground slightly as the FOMC minutes have shown increased Fed cautiousness over the pace of monetary tightening. Sentiment in the stock market is positive despite the recent terrorist attack in the UK. Crude oil remains high before the OPEC meeting.
On Thursday 25th of May, the event calendar is quite busy in important data release, so market participants will pay attention to Second GDP Estimate and Business Investment from the UK, Unemployment and Continuing Claims from the US, and the National CPI Index data from Japan later in the night.
GBP/USD analysis for 25/05/2017:
The Second GDP Estimate and Business Investment data are scheduled for release at 08:30 am GMT and market participants expect no change in GDP estimate at the level of 0.3% for the first quarter. On the other hand, Business Investment data are expected to increase to the level of 0.3% after -0.9% decrease last quarter. If both data are in line with expectations or better than expected, then GDP is likely to beat the expectations with ease.
Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The price is still trading above the golden trend line support, but the upwards momentum is almost gone. The swing high at the level of 1.3047 has been already tested three times, but the bulls were not strong enough to break out above it. Currently, the bias is to the downside and worse than expected data might trigger the move towards the next support at the level of 1.2881 and 1.2844.
EUR/USD analysis for 25/05/2017:
Another set of data from the US job market such as Unemployment Claims and Continuing Claims is scheduled for release at 12:30 pm GMT. The overall trend in the US job market is positive with low unemployment rate and high NFP figures.The same situation is observed in claims as the average number keeps hovering around 220k every week. This is why market participants expect 238k claims which are 6k more than a week ago. The Continuing Claims (unemployed workers that qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance) is expected to increase slightly to 1,925k from 1,898k a week ago. Only a dramatic change in the claims data would change the outlook for worse in the US job market. NFP Payrolls data are scheduled for release next Friday.
Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The market has bounced again from the support at the level of 1.1170 and now the bulls are trying to test the local swing high at the level of 1.1266. Nevertheless, the momentum indicator does not point to the upside and the stochastic oscillator is reversing from the overbought territory as well. Any violation of the level of 1.1170 will be a clear sign that the bears have the control over the market and they are going to push the price to the level of 1.1075 minima.
Market snapshot: USD/JPY in rising wedge formation
The USD/JPY pair is forming a rising wedge pattern after the big falls we experienced from May 10-18. This is only a correction before returning to the downtrend. Therefore, a breakout should be to the downside, which will allow testing the another Fibonacci at 61% at the level of 110.50. Another support is the 78%Fibo at the level of 109.45. The resistance in the event of a surprising spike is the 61%Fibo at the level of 112.80.
