Wave analysis of GBP/USD for September 8. Pound declines ahead of Andrew Bailey's speech


The wave counting for the GBP/USD pair still looks quite convincing and does not require any additions and adjustments at the moment. The assumed waves a, b, and c of the assumed upward trend section are quite long. Nevertheless, the wave counting itself does not cause any doubts. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.3873 mark, which is equal to 23.6% Fibonacci level, indicates the exit of quotes from the reached highs, but it is unlikely to complete the construction of the wave c itself, which should take a much longer form than it is now. If the current wave counting is correct, then the price increase should resume to the level of 1.3980 (the peak of wave a). Thus, I am waiting for a breakout of the 1.3873 mark and a further increase in quotes in the direction of the January peaks. At this time, there is still no reason to assume a complication of the current wave counting. The upward section of the trend can take both a three-wave and a five-wave form, but at the same time, most likely, it will turn out to be corrective again.

The GBP/USD pair fell by 25 basis points on Wednesday. The amplitude of the pair is lower than that of the EUR/USD. And it looks very unusual. However, both currency pairs have made unsuccessful attempts to break through important marks and are now declining. I believe that there is a high probability of resuming the construction of upward waves on both. Nevertheless, I admit that both the euro and the British pound will need to pass tests in the near future. Today, the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, as well as several of his colleagues will give a speech in the UK. And tomorrow, the results of the ECB meeting will be summed up in the European Union. Thus, the markets may react to these events in completely different ways. And both currency pairs can move differently today and tomorrow. Bailey's performance will be the first in the last month.

Thus, the markets will be watching him with great attention. Bailey is expected to provide information on the timing of the completion of the economic assistance program. There have been a lot of rumors around the Bank of England recently, but no specifics at the same time. Thus, Bailey's words about his readiness to start curtailing the incentive program can greatly help the British pound. Words about the unwillingness to tighten monetary policy cause a new decline in the quotes of the GBP/USD currency pair. Also, we should not ignore the speeches of Ben Broadbent, Silvana Tenreyro, who have repeatedly voiced statements that led to movements in the market. From my point of view, we will not hear "hawkish" rhetoric today, but perhaps it will be neutral. In order for the current wave count to have the maximum chance of preserving its integrity, it is necessary to use neutral or "hawkish" rhetoric.

The wave pattern is now more or less clear. I still expect the construction of an upward wave, so at this time I suggest considering buying the instrument for each MACD signal "up" with targets located near the 1.4000 mark (the first target). The currency pair presumably began the construction of an internal corrective wave consisting of c.


The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. A new section of the trend can get an impulse form, its first wave has acquired a sufficiently extended form and exceeded the peaks of waves b and d. The chances of a new strong increase in quotes are growing. If the news background does not interfere, then the increase in quotes should continue in the near future.

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