Wave analysis of GBP/USD for September 7. Demand for British pound fell sharply after unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.3873


The wave counting for the GBP/USD pair still looks quite convincing and does not require any additions and adjustments at the moment. The assumed waves a, b, and c of the assumed upward trend section are quite long. Nevertheless, the wave marking itself does not cause any doubts. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.3873 mark, which is equal to 23.6% Fibonacci level, indicates the exit of quotes from the reached highs, but it is unlikely to complete the construction of the wave c itself, which should take a much longer form than it is now. If the current wave counting is correct, then the price increase should continue at least to the level of 1.3980 (the peak of wave a). Thus, I am waiting for a breakout of the 1.3873 mark and a further increase in quotes in the direction of the January peaks. At this time, there is still no reason to assume a complication of the current wave count. The upward section of the trend can take both a three-wave and a five-wave form.

The GBP/USD pair fell by 75 basis points on Monday and Tuesday. Despite the strong decline in the quotes of the British pound, in general, the activity of the markets remains very weak. From the last peak to Tuesday's low, the instrument fell by 120 basis points. This is almost two full days, that is 60 points per day. For the pound, this is not much. And there is very little news in the UK. On Tuesday, the calendar included two speeches by members of the MPC of the Bank of England and not a single economic report. There were no planned events in America for today either. I can assume that Michael Saunders or Catherine Mann said something that caused the sales of the British pound, but nothing is known about this yet.

Members of the Bank of England's MPC, as well as members of the Fed, speak quite often. There are sometimes up to 10 speeches in one week. And it is very rare when officials from the central bank tell the markets something that causes a strong reaction. Thus, I assume that the British pound declined today due to an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level and may resume raising quotes in the coming days, since the upward section of the trend does not look complete yet. At the same time, the continuation of the decline in quotes may lead to a significant complication of the current wave count. For now, this option is a reserve option, and tomorrow the governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will speak, after which the instrument can also show active movements. Therefore, it is still too early to conclude the transformation of the wave pattern.

The wave pattern is now more or less clear. I still expect the construction of an upward wave, so at this time I suggest considering buying the pair for each MACD signal "up" with targets located near the 1.4000 mark (the first target). The GBP/USD pair has presumably completed the construction of the downward wave b and is ready to continue increasing.


The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. A new section of the trend can get an impulse form, its first wave has acquired a sufficiently extended form and exceeded the peaks of waves b and d. The chances of a new strong increase in quotes are growing. If the news background does not interfere, then the increase in quotes should continue in the near future.

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