Recently, the most popular cryptocurrency showed a perfect bullish trend. Starting from July 23, the trend broke the final level of a wide 2-month fluctuation range. Since touching the local high at $51.2k bitcoin fell into a correction. A new rush of the challenging level failed to succeed. The market came to an accumulation that has already been lasting for two weeks. At the same time, bitcoin prices are ranging between $46,5k-$49,5k levels. However, several factors indicate the gradual completion of the accumulation phase and the beginning of explosive growth.
At 13:00 bitcoin was quoted at $47.5k and was showing a slight increase in trading volume over the day. Local support levels are at $46.3k and $46.8k. Still, bitcoin maintains a bearish trend, and breaking of $51.2k level can finish it. The charts show a local triangle that may be broken shortly. A two-hour price dynamic of +0.5% indicates this, as well as the hourly MACD, which started an upward movement towards the zero mark. The RSI locates near 60, but the stochastic indicates a possible reversal of the upward movement. At the same time, trading volumes continue to grow, which indicates a local increase in demand for bitcoin. After the triangle will be broken, the prospect of growing up to $48k with a subsequent consolidation seems to be possible. In addition, the number of long positions increased, but most likely, the price will stop at the $49k level, where bitcoin finds a strong resistance line and the beginning of the sales range.
While the market is accumulating its trading volume, bitcoin is focused on the local situation. The activity of long-term and medium-term holders remains at a high level, which also indicates an increase in volumes. Besides, on-chain analysis shows the final stage of accumulation and indicates that the market is ready to climb up. The main argument lies in the growing divergence between the real value of the cryptocurrency and the Daily Active Addresses and Transaction Volume indicators. The jittery growth of on-chain indicators suggests the final stage of accumulation, as the charts lack a systematic and proportional trend in connection with the real value. In addition, the Realized Cap indicates an increase in RC, which is typical of a bull market. All this occurs due to the desire of investors to take profits, which is caused by the growth of quotations. BTC's on-chain activity clearly indicates the end of the accumulation and demonstrates the first impulses of a future bullish rally.
Taking that history repeats itself, one should not forget that the fall is usually a positive season for bitcoin. Additionally, during the fall bitcoin receives a growth acceleration reaching its highs in winter and lasting till February when the correction begins.
Also, bitcoin's hashrate full recovery coincides with the termination of the accumulation phase. For the last month, the block solving difficulty has increased by 15% but remains far from its highest. After a weekly record of $8 billion in bitcoin transactions, the hashrate began to drop. This also points to the need to start a bullish rally. Analysts forecast that the difficulty of bitcoin mining may approach its high in mid-September and contributes to the increase in volume and the price of the BTC/USD pair.
The final argument that heralds the bullish bitcoin rally is the Taproot update. This update widens the functionality and potential of smart contracts with privacy and efficiency of transactions. The crypto community including stakeholders and bitcoin experts unanimously approved the update. This concensus has become the main advantage of the upcoming upgrade. Therefore, if the Taproot is successfully implemented the effect from it may be deafening. However, it is too early to say whether bitcoin will be able to reach the $100k level by the end of 2021. This will largely depend on the news backdrop and the reaction of market participants to it.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com