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Wave analysis of EUR/USD for August 26. Markets still prepare for increase and await Jackson Hole Symposium


The wave counting on the 4-hour chart for the Euro/Dollar instrument remains unchanged for the time being. And what changes can there be if the instrument passes 30-40 points per day? Over the past five days, the instrument has gained about 100 basis points, which gives reason to expect the completion of the construction of a downward trend section. But 100 points is too little to say with confidence about the end of the downward trend section. The wave counting of the proposed wave e looks quite convincing now, but if the markets do not start buying the euro more actively, everything may end up making the downward section more complicated. A successful attempt to break through the 100.0% Fibonacci level indirectly indicates the readiness of the markets to buy. I am not considering the option with the complication of the current wave count yet and I expect an increase in quotes with targets located around the 19th figure, which corresponds to the maximum of wave d. However, with the current activity indicators, the instrument can crawl to this mark for a very long time.

The news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument was again very weak on Thursday. Or the markets again did not find anything special in the news that came in, which again was not much. In general, the news background is now very diverse, and it is even difficult to imagine what exactly affects the Euro/Dollar instrument. And if you look at how it has been moving in recent weeks, the conclusion is obvious: "nothing". The markets are forced to pay attention again to the sad news about the coronavirus infection and its spread in the United States. By the way, the number of cases is growing not only in the United States but also in some EU countries.

Vaccination is in full swing, but doctors are already talking about a decrease in the effectiveness of existing vaccines and about their weakening after 6 months. It turns out that in order to be constantly protected, you need to be vaccinated once every 6 months. Moreover, scientists from the United States found that about 25% of patients who became ill in recent weeks received both doses of the vaccine. In general, the news from the healthcare sector is really sad. The markets are not paying attention to them yet, but the whole world may face a new crisis. For now, we should focus on Jerome Powell's speech, which will take place tomorrow. The markets are still waiting for information from the Fed chair, but will they wait? Many analysts already believe that there will be nothing interesting in Powell's speech tomorrow since the Fed chair will prefer to wait for the September meeting to make appropriate statements.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward section could have ended around the level of 1.1704, which is equal to 100.0% according to Fibonacci. Wave e has received a pronounced five-wave internal structure, so now I am still waiting for the beginning of the construction of an upward set of waves. The markets are still holding the instrument above the 17th figure, so I advise you to buy euros for each MACD signal "up" in order to build a new upward set.


The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly took a more complex form, but it still ended (presumably) in the same place as the previous three-wave section.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -