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Wave analysis of EUR/USD for August 25. Markets are unwilling to trade the instrument before the Jackson Hole event


The wave counting of the 4-hour chart for the Euro/Dollar instrument remains unchanged for the time being. And what changes can there be if the instrument passes by 30-40 basis points per day? Over the past four days, the instrument has gained about 90 basis points, which gives reason to expect the completion of the construction of a downward trend section. But 90 points is too small a result to speak with confidence about the end of the downward trend section. The wave counting of the proposed wave e looks quite convincing now, and at this time the construction of a new upward trend section may begin. A successful attempt to break through the 100.0% Fibonacci level indirectly indicates the readiness of the markets to buy the instrument. I am not considering the option with the complication of the current wave count yet and I expect an increase in quotes with targets located around the 19th figure, which corresponds to the maximum of wave d. The news background is very weak this week. There will be almost no important reports. Thus, market activity may also remain very weak until Jerome Powell's speech on Friday.

The news background for the Euro/Dollar instrument on Wednesday was reduced only to a report on orders for long-term goods in the United States. There were still small hopes that this report would turn out to be significant, but the markets very quickly made it clear that they were not going to react to it. The volume of orders in July decreased by 0.1% on a monthly basis. And this value is still slightly better than the markets expected. After the release of this report, the US currency increased by 10 points at best. Thus, we can assume that this report did not exist. What then remains? There is absolutely nothing left. And even if it were impossible to look at the calendar of economic events now, it would still be possible to say with confidence that nothing interesting is happening now either in the United States or in the European Union. And unfortunately, it is unlikely that the situation with the news background will change before the end of this week. A report on GDP for the second quarter in the United States is scheduled for tomorrow, but this report has already been published earlier. Then, about a month ago, the markets also showed no interest in this report. And I certainly do not expect that the markets will pay attention to the report on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States. Thus, the only hope is Powell's performance in Jackson Hole on Friday.

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the construction of the downward section could have ended around the level of 1.1704, which is equal to 100.0% according to Fibonacci. Wave e has received a pronounced five-wave internal structure, so now I expect the beginning of building an upward set of waves or complicating the current trend section. The markets are still holding the instrument above the 17th figure, so I advise you to buy euros for each MACD signal "up" in order to build a new upward set.


The wave counting of the higher scale looks quite convincing. We see three three-wave sections of the trend, which are approximately the same in size. However, the last section of the trend quite unexpectedly took a more complex form, but it still ended (presumably) in the same place as the previous three-wave section.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -