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Wave analysis of GBP/USD for July 22. UK face supply chain disruption


The wave counting for the Pound/Dollar instrument still raises a large number of questions. Now the last decline of the instrument is identified as a new three-wave structure or wave e. In any case, the wave count becomes complicated and confusing again. Today, the instrument has gained about 50 more basis points, but this wave can be either a corrective b as part of a new downward trend or the first wave of a new upward trend. The question of whether the entire last downward trend, which begins on June 1, is a five-wave structure or a more complex one, remains relevant. The picture below shows a variant in which the current section of the trend has already been completed and has taken the form a-b-c-d-e.

From my point of view, this is a fairly workable scenario. Initially, I assumed that the downward trend section would take only a three-wave form. Therefore, now I am inclined to believe that it is completed. If so, then the instrument has started building a new upward trend section, the goals of which can be located up to the maximum of the previous upward section, that is, around the mark of 1.4248.

The Pound/Dollar instrument was under the strongest market pressure at the beginning of this week, but now it is beginning to revive. Unfortunately, from the point of view of wave analysis, it is impossible to answer the question of whether the decline of the instrument will resume in the near future. Nevertheless, the tension in the market is beginning to subside. Unlike the pandemic in the UK. However, it is not only the pandemic that is a problem at this time. Britain is faced with empty shelves in supermarkets and a shortage of a number of goods. Industrialists and retailers say that this is due to a failure in supply chains, Brexit, and a shortage of truck drivers. All as one declare that there is a serious shortage of motor transport drivers, and call on the British government to allow foreign drivers to work.

According to experts, there are now 100,000 fewer truck drivers in Britain than is necessary for uninterrupted and regular transportation of all necessary goods. Before Brexit, it was foreigners who made up the majority of this segment of the labor market. Because of the pandemic, many have left, and they cannot or do not want to return to this job due to the fact that the UK is no longer part of the EU. As we can see, Brexit continues to impose problems on the country's economy and people's living. Thus, the news background remains not the most favorable for the pound, but in the last few months, a downward trend has already been built. I expect that it will end soon since it is not impulsive.

At the moment, the wave pattern remains very complex. The construction of the downward trend is presumably completed, but it can still take a more complex form. The last descending wave can end at any time, as it largely depends on the news background. Yesterday's recommendations on purchases with the target of 100 points above the price level turned out to be winning. Now I continue to recommend purchases for each MACD signal "up" with targets located near the 1.3873 mark, which is equal to 23.6% Fibonacci.


The upward trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. However, the wave counting still looks quite complicated, since there is no impulse movement now. At this time, it is assumed that the construction of a complicated downward trend section has been completed, which may have taken the form a-b-c-d-e.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -