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Hot forecast for GBP/USD on July 12, 2021

The pound has quite rapidly returned to the values from which it began to decline at the beginning of the previous week. At the same time, the growth was not only fast and confident, but also occurred against the backdrop of rather weak macroeconomic data, as the rate of industrial production growth in the United Kingdom slowed down from 27.2% to 20.6%. However, this did not stop the pound in any way. Although, we must admit that the sharp weakening that happened on July 6 was largely unreasonable and took place against the backdrop of a completely empty macroeconomic calendar. This led to the formation of imbalances that the market needed to correct. So, the rebound was inevitable. But since the decline in the pound itself turned out to be largely sudden, its growth was a complete surprise.

Industrial production (UK):


After such a sharp movement, it is logical to expect some kind of rebound in the other direction. At the same time, the macroeconomic calendar today is, in principle, completely empty, which is a great background just for correction. Thus, it is quite possible to expect a certain decline in the pound. However, there is a very important point here -- data on inflation in the United States will be published tomorrow. And this is not just important data, this is an incredibly significant event. It is quite possible that investors are not ready to take risks ahead of the publication of such data, and will prefer to act more cautiously. As a result, the pound may well go into some kind of stagnation. Thus, there are various possible scenarios. If the pound continues to decline, this process will be quite slow and progressive. But what is definitely not worth waiting for today is the growth of the pound. There are no reasons for this in principle.

The GBP/USD currency pair managed to move from the stagnation stage to the technical correction stage last Friday, where the support area of 1.3730/1.3750, previously known on the market, played as a pivot point.

The market dynamics has a high indicator of volatility, which exceeds the average daily level. The coefficient of speculative operations continues to grow.

In the current location of the quote, a price stagnation is visible, which signals the stage of local overbought.

It can be assumed that the stagnation around the 1.3900 mark will eventually lead to a reverse move with an increase in the volume of short positions. In simple words, there is a chance to partially win back the impulse move during the Friday period.

From the point of view of complex indicator analysis, it is clear that technical instruments on the minute and hour period signal a purchase, due to the correction stage. The daily period is still focused on a downward development, signaling a sale.


The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -