Forecast for EUR/USD on June 4, 2021


Yesterday, the euro fell 82 points on strong data from the United States: 978,000 new jobs were created in the private sector in May against 645,000 expectations, 385,000 applications for unemployment benefits were recorded in the week (the lowest figure for 15 months), the index of business activity in the service sector from ISM in May increased from 62.7 to 64.0.

But even before the release of this news, the euro was falling against the background of good European indicators: the Services PMI of the eurozone for May in the final estimate was increased to 55.2 from 55.1, the British Services PMI was increased to 62.9 from 61.8. By this, the market shows that it is more interested in the Federal Reserve's mood and its own feelings of market overheating, which is now setting up counterdollar currencies in a medium-term decline. Likewise, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, said yesterday that the Fed will begin to roll back incentives "sooner rather than later."


On the daily chart, the price left the trading range of the second half of May, where the market senses of overbought accumulated, though not without a doubt.

The Marlin oscillator has penetrated into the downward trend area with force, the euro's closest target is the MACD line at the level of 1.2065, more precisely, the range between the level of 1.2051 (low on May 13) and the MACD line. Consolidation below 1.2051 opens the target at 1.1913 - the lower border of the price channel, which began in May last year.


A completely downward trend is formed on the chart - the price is below the indicator lines, the Marlin oscillator is in the zone of negative values.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -