EUR/USD – 1H.
During the last trading day, the EUR/USD pair performed a small increase above the level of 1.1715, after which it turned in favor of the US currency and returned to this level. Closing the pair's rate below the level of 1.1715 will allow traders to count on the continuation of the pair's fall in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.1661). The rebound of quotes from 1.1715 will allow us to expect another increase in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.1772). The United States did not manage to fully implement the first-aid package, which totals $ 1.9 trillion, as Joe Biden announced the second, which is also going to be implemented in the near future. According to the US president, this will be a plan to upgrade infrastructure and industry. "This is the largest investment in jobs since World War II," Joe Biden said.
The plan includes the allocation of $ 621 billion for the modernization of the transport system, $ 400 billion for the support of pensioners and the disabled, $ 300 billion for the development of the industrial sector, $ 213 billion for the repair and construction of housing for Americans, and $ 100 billion for the development of networks. To implement this plan, Biden wants to raise taxes "for the rich". First of all, we are talking about large companies and corporations, and second - about rich Americans. According to the White House calculations, the money will be invested in infrastructure over the next 8 years, and the entire plan will pay off within 15 years through tax increases. I also remind you that there should be no problems with the adoption of this aid package, as well as with the adoption of the tax increase law since the lower house of Congress and the Senate are completely controlled by the Democrats. Even if one of the senators is against raising taxes and allocating an additional $ 2 trillion, there is no doubt that they will be persuaded.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation under the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729). Thus, the process of falling can now be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 100.0% (1.1496). The MACD indicator is brewing a bullish divergence, however, the downward movement is now too confident and recoilless, most likely, it will continue.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation under the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1822). Thus, the process of falling can now be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 200.0% (1.1566). The general mood of traders remains "bearish".
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On March 31, the European Union published a report on inflation, which frankly disappointed traders. It turned out that core inflation not only did not accelerate but also slowed down. However, neither this report nor the ADP report affected the overall mood of traders.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (08:00 UTC).
US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
US - ISM manufacturing index (14:00 UTC).
On April 1, the European Union and the United States will release business activity indices for the manufacturing sector, which may cause the greatest interest among traders.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which turned out to be much calmer this time. The Non-commercial category of traders got rid of 1,766 long contracts and 953 short contracts during the reporting week. The numbers are very small, so I would say that there is almost no change. In general, over the past month, bull traders have strongly lost their positions, as a large number of long contracts were closed and short contracts were opened. If at the beginning of February the gap between the number of long and short contracts was threefold, at the moment it is less than twofold.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It was recommended to sell the pair if it closes below the level of 1.1772 with a target of 1.1715. This goal has already been achieved. Now you can open sales with the target of the Fibo level of 200.0% (1.1661) if the close is at 1.1715. Purchases of the pair are not recommended today, as there was no clear rebound from the level of 1.1715.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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