Forecast for EUR/USD on March 16, 2021


Yesterday, the euro fell 27 points ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting on Wednesday. Of course, there will be no changes, but the other day, Finance Minister Janet Yellen said that the inflation risk from the "Biden package" is minimal and easily manageable. Perhaps her words can be used as an indicator of the current sentiment of the Fed. In general, markets expect the first rate hike only in 2023. Investors are now more concerned with controlling government bond yields, but I think it's too early for the Fed to intervene, Powell will soften this moment, if only for reasons of curbing real inflation.


The lower shadow of yesterday's candlestick touched Friday's low on the daily chart, the reference level at 1.1910. Perhaps today the price will try to stay in the 1.1910/90 range in order to meet the Fed meeting in a more convenient position for buying the dollar. Also, retail sales for February, which will be published today, are expected to decline: -0.3/-0.5% m/m and 5.9% y/y versus 7.4% y/y in January, which also does not stimulate active market action.


The price moves along the MACD line on the four-hour chart, which gradually falls into the horizon. The Marlin oscillator is moving sideways along its own zero line. A low-volatile day is expected.

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