4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - downward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - upward.
CCI: 119.9893
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward movement for most of the third trading day of the week, and the price continues to be located above the moving average line. Thus, the technical picture for the pair has not changed over the past day, the US currency is still under market pressure. As for the reasons and prospects, they also remain the same. Previously, the pair was influenced by a very large number of different factors. In particular, the macroeconomic reports are published quite often and in large numbers. But in the last year, the markets have ignored the macroeconomic statistics for reasons that we have already listed many times. In short, the markets now pay attention only to the global fundamental factors that affect the economy globally. Thus, in recent months, traders have taken into account, from our point of view, only the factor of the fall of the US economy and the ratio to the overall fall of the European economy, as well as the factor of the total volume of all stimulus packages for the US economy. It is precisely because of these two factors that the US dollar continues to decline in the long term. It is because of these two factors that it may continue to fall in 2021. Of course, this does not mean that in reality, the dollar will simply decline throughout 2021. Anything can happen over such a long period. For example, Italy will want to break away from the EU after the parliamentary elections, and this will be a strong factor in the fall of the euro currency. or the European Central Bank will start printing money like crazy and throwing it out of a helicopter. In general, many hypothetical and potential global factors can affect the euro/dollar pair. But while they are not there, there are only those two that we have already listed more than once. Thus, they continue to influence the supply and demand of the US currency.
However, this does not mean that now you can not be interested in the "foundation" and do not track the news at all. For example, in the United States, another high-profile judicial and political process has now begun. The proceedings will take place in the US Senate, where the consideration of the impeachment case against Donald Trump begins. The charge is sedition. It is necessary to clearly understand how this process will take place and what the results may be, since under certain conditions this may affect the exchange rate of the US currency. It should be understood that any political crisis is bad for the country's reputation. Donald Trump, of course, has already left the post of president, but this does not mean that he has left politics and now has nothing to do with it. Although the Democrats are very eager to ensure that Trump will never again hold high public office and will not run for president in 2024. So, the former US president will be charged by nine members of the lower house of Congress – all Democrats who were chosen by Speaker Nancy Pelosi. On January 25, the official position of the prosecution was submitted to the Senate, and on February 2 - an 80-page document describing the crimes that Donald Trump is accused of. On February 8, Donald Trump's lawyers presented their point of view, who believe that the impeachment of the president, who has already left office, is "unconstitutional". They also believe that in Trump's words "not to recognize the results of the election and fight to the last", there were no calls for an attack on the Capitol and in general, they are protected by the First Amendment to the US Constitution. On February 9, the Senate decided by a simple majority that Trump's trial on the proposed charges and the impeachment process itself is constitutional. Simply put, the case will continue to be heard by the Senate, where senators serve as jurors. It is they who will have to pass a verdict when all parties present their versions of what happened on January 6 in Washington. By and large, the most important thing, in this case, would be the comments of Donald Trump himself, who does not admit his guilt, but the former US president turned out to appear in the Senate and testify, calling the whole process a "publicity stunt". So maybe the whole process isn't worth a damn. What difference does it make if the fate still depends on Republican senators, at least 17 of whom must support the impeachment of their party member? It's hard to believe now. Maybe the Democrats will be able to win over 5-6 Republicans, but hardly 17. Therefore, at the moment, everything goes to the fact that the Democrats will not be able to do anything against Trump. So in 4 years, Trump may run again.
For the US currency, it will be better if this whole process ends quickly, and all congressmen and senators move from the impeachment process, which will no longer affect the country, economy, and foreign relations, to their direct responsibilities for governing the country. The longer this process drags on, the more nervous investors will be, and the US dollar, of course, will continue to be under pressure. However, according to the two global factors that we discussed at the beginning of the article, it will be under pressure without this. Therefore, all attention should be directed to the technical factors that remain the main ones in the analysis and forecasting of the movement of the euro/dollar currency pair.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of February 11 is 67 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.2067 and 1.2201. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator downwards may signal a round of downward correction.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2085
S2 – 1.2024
S3 – 1.1963
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2146
R2 – 1.2207
R3 – 1.2268
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues to be in an upward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to keep long positions open with targets of 1.2146 and 1.2201 until the Heiken Ashi indicator turns down. It is recommended to consider sell orders if the pair is fixed below the moving average, with targets of 1.2024 and 1.1963.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com