To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:
Nothing has changed from a technical point of view. Although the bulls allowed Friday's lows to be updated yesterday, they still stayed above support 1.0772, which led to new purchases of EUR/USD in the expectation of an upward correction. Important fundamental data will not be published today, which allows us to expect a breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.0834. After this, a larger upward correction is expected against the background of profit-taking by bears, with a likely test of the high of 1.0897 and an update of the larger resistance of 1.0961, where I recommend taking profits. If the pressure on EUR/USD persists in the first half of the day after weak indicators for Germany and Italy, it is best to return to long positions only after updating the low of 1.0772, provided that a false breakout is formed, or immediately to rebound from the larger support of 1.0718. You should take note that a Eurogroup meeting will be held today, at which decisions can be made on the allocation of new aid to the economy, which will definitely support the euro.
To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:
Given the lack of demand for the US dollar as a safe haven asset at the end of last week and the inability of the bears to push the low of 1.0772 yesterday, there is a risk of ending the downward trend in EUR/USD. Sellers need to protect the 1.0834 range, where by analogy with yesterday the formation of a false breakout will be a signal to open short positions in expectation of the pair's fall to the lower boundary of the descending channel and to update the weekly lows with a break of the support 1.0772 and test a larger area 1.0718 where I recommend to take profit. In case the pair grows above the resistance of 1.0834 in the first half of the day, it is best to return to sales only after the test of a large resistance of 1.0897, or short EUR/USD immediately to rebound from the high of 1.0961.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the preservation of the probability of an upward correction in the short term.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger bands
A break of the upper boundary of the indicator at 1.0830 will strengthen the demand for the euro. A break of the lower boundary of the indicator in the 1.0772 area will bring the euro to new lows.
Description of indicators
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
- Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
