USD / JPY pair
The collapse of the USD/JPY pair in the last three days was directly related to the decline of the stock market by 2.69% (S&P500) after the Fed decided to lower the rate. The business media immediately blamed the hapless Powell for this, who got confused at his press conference with his own thesis and gave conflicting answers, to the extent that if the stock market fell further, the Fed would raise the rate. We do not associate the fall of the market with the Fed meeting, the situation is more like profit-taking prepared for this event as the fall of the stock market at a lower rate looks illogical. We saw a similar thing in May but even earlier in the 4th quarter of last year, when the massive outpouring of large players in the 3rd quarter led to a collapse of the market in the 4th quarter by 17% due to the crash of smaller players. The situation was rescued by the back-to-back from the new year of the buybacks of corporations, where companies purchase their own shares and now, the whole question is when these buybacks will resume. August is the middle of the quarter and it is not yet clear how investors want to complete it. Accordingly, the purchase of the yen as a safe-haven and stock market-dependent asset also has uncertain prospects.
On the daily chart, the price reached the support of the embedded line of the price channel (green) in today's Asian session. The Marlin oscillator drops at a high speed and already in the oversold zone.
On the four-hour chart, Marlin's signal line is decreasing and shows no signs of a reversal. In the case of fixing the price at today's low at 105.80, a further decline is likely to support the underlying line of the price channel (red) in the area of 105.04.
