4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 63p - 42p - 53p - 78p - 48p.
Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 57p (56p).
On the last trading day of the week, a sufficiently large amount of macroeconomic data was published. First, it is inflation in the EU, which accelerated from 1.4% to 1.7% y/y. Unfortunately for the euro, this report did not provide any support to it, most likely due to the fact that the inflation value still remains below the target level set by the ECB. Secondly, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector was published in the States. This number seriously exceeded the predicted value (263,000 against 185,000). However, the US dollar, which, in principle, is becoming more expensive all day, cannot be said to have received significant support from traders. The unemployment rate also pleased investors, falling from 3.8% to 3.6%. Only the average wage showed a smaller increase than experts expected (+3.2% against the forecast of +3.3%). In general, we can say that all the news was in favor of the dollar. Thus, we expect that the pair will continue to decline, unless the latest reports of the day (indices of business activity in the US services sector) fail. On Monday morning, thus, you can also expect a downward movement, as today the European stock exchanges were deprived of the opportunity to work out all the information from the States. The trend for the instrument remains downward, the US economy still looks stronger compared to the European one. Therefore, the balance of power between currencies does not change at all. Only from time to time do individual reports support the euro, and only for a short time. Thus, we believe that the fall of the pair will continue in the medium term.
Trading recommendations:
The pair EUR/USD continues its downward movement. The nearest target for short positions is the level of 1.1100. The reversal of the MACD indicator to the top will signal an upward correction round.
Long positions are recommended to be considered not earlier than fixing the pair above the critical line and the Senkou Span B line. In this case, the trend for the instrument will change to an upward one, but this is unlikely to happen today.
In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen - the red line.
Kijun-sen - the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line.
Chinkou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD Indicator:
A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com