Global macro overview for 15/11/2016:
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was released at 91.6 points last Friday and today's data of Retail Sales at 02:30pm GMT are highly anticipated. The reason behind the anticipation is quite simple: better-than-expected data might indicate that consumer spending will firm up in the final quarter of 2016. This is why economists are looking for another solid advance in retail sales for October. The market consensus suggests an advance of 0.6%, just like in September. Moreover, the anticipated gain indicates a 3.5% year-on-year rise, which would be the strongest annual rise in eight months. In conclusion, expectations are high and if the forecast holds up, the news will add more weight to expectations that the Federal Reserve is poised to raise interest rates next month.
Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture at the daily time frame before the news are released. The bulls are in control over this market and now it looks like they are waiting for the data release to trigger the attack (and a possible breakout) for the level of 100.48. In that case, the Dollar would be the most expensive since December 2015. The key level for further Dollar appreciation is technical support at the level of 99.12.
