Global macro analysis for 05/08/2016:
The most anticipated fundamental event of the week, the NFP Payrolls data, will be released today at 12:30 pm GMT. The market participants are expecting another good number for the month of July. The anticipated figure is at the level of 180k, a lower number than last month impressive release of 298k. Earlier this week the ADP number were in line with expectations, so any data that will be better than expected will easily spark yet another wave of speculation regarding a possible interest rate hike at the FED's September meeting. According to the FedWatch tool by CME Group, the current number of investors that expect a rate hike in September is 9%, but it might be changed if data beats expectations.
Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture at the daily time frame. The bulls have managed to move the prices higher towards the 21 days moving average after it bounced from support at the level of 95.00. The sequence of higher highs and higher lows is still valid, so this might be the beginning of a new uptrend. Any break out above the golden trend line confirms that bulls are in full control over this market.
