Global macro analysis for 20/04/2016:
Yesterday's Kuwait oil workers strike against wage and job cuts was terminated after mutual agreement. Moreover, the workers agreed to return the output to pre-strike levels which would be around 1.5 million barrels a day. As a result, oil production is now likely to remain high. This could put crude oil prices under serious pressure once again. The weekend meeting in Doha was a failure as well, especially if we take into account that after that meeting Russia reported to be looking to increase output and exports (together with Saudi Arabia). In conclusion, the whole situation looks like the beginning of a share war and every country is now looking for the best for themselves, so this might push the prices lower in the mid-term.
Let's now take a look at the technical picture of crude oil in the 4H time frame. The weekend gap was filled and market was capped at the 78%Fibo at the level of 41.38. Moreover, the golden trend line was tested from the downside and now it looks like the market is ready for sell-off.
