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Wave analysis of GBP/USD for September 13. US inflation should help the pound


The wave counting for the GBP/USD currency pair still looks quite convincing and does not require any additions and adjustments at the moment. The assumed waves a, b, and c of the assumed upward trend segment are quite long, but the wave counting itself does not raise any questions. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 1.3873 mark, which is equal to 23.6% Fibonacci level, led to the exit of quotes from the reached highs, but wave c does not yet look fully completed. The deviation of quotes from the reached highs turned out to be weak and did not affect the current wave counting. Thus, I expect the resumption of the construction of this wave and the increase in the quotes of the instrument. A successful attempt to break through the 23.6% Fibonacci level will indicate the readiness of the markets for new purchases, which is necessary for the pair at this time. The targets of wave c can be located between the peak of wave a and the level of 1.4239. But whatever it was, it still implies the continued growth of the British pound. I don't see any reasons to make any changes to the current wave pattern yet.

The exchange rate of the GBP/USD pair did not change on Friday compared to Thursday, and on Monday – compared to Friday. Even though the markets tried to trade actively, each time, a movement in one direction was replaced by a movement in the opposite direction. On Friday, important economic data were released in the UK: Industrial production for July increased in volumes by 3.8% YoY and 1.2% MoM. While July GDP grew by 0.1% MoM and 7.5% YoY. The first report turned out better than expected, while the second turned out worse. However, they did not have any impact on the mood of the markets, since, as I have already noted, the British pound exchange rate did not change either on Friday or on Monday.

Due to the lack of a news background, the amplitude of the GBP/USD currency pair was quite weak on Monday. But now the markets need to try to hold the pair through the 23.6% Fibonacci level so that the wave count won't be broken. US inflation report is scheduled for Tuesday, which may show a decrease in the indicator. In the past times, when inflation was rising, the US dollar was also growing. If the expectations of the markets come true, then tomorrow we can expect a decline in the US currency, which is necessary for the current wave counting.

The wave pattern is now more or less clear. I still expect the construction of an upward wave, so at this time, I suggest considering buying the instrument for each MACD signal "up" with targets located near the 1.4000 mark (the first target). The currency pair presumably completed the construction of an internal corrective wave c.


The upward section of the trend, which began its construction a couple of months ago, has taken a rather ambiguous form and has already been completed. A new section of the trend can get an impulse form, its first wave has acquired a sufficiently extended form and exceeded the peaks of waves b and d. The chances of a new strong increase in quotes are growing. If the news background does not interfere, then the increase in quotes should continue in the near future.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -