Forecast for EUR/USD on March 17, 2021


Yesterday, the euro tried to be neutral before today's Federal Reserve meeting, but a strong drop in the British pound (at the moment by 90 points) brought the euro under the neutral range of 1.1910/90. US economic indicators were not in favor of the dollar, but investors still hope for a more hawkish shift in the Fed's rhetoric. Retail sales in February showed contraction by 3.0% (forecast -0.5%), industrial production in the same month fell by 2.2% against expectations of growth by 0.4%. This afternoon there will be data on new home start-ups for February, the forecast of 1.56 million y/y against 1.58 million y/y earlier and more in the week, there will be no important data on the US. The euro's succeeding movement will depend on today's results of the FOMC meeting.

We have already mentioned that we do not expect anything serious from the Fed. The central bank's only task at this meeting with regard to the markets is not to give a reason for the dollar to weaken at a time when the US needs liquidity under the Biden package, and to increase demand for its bonds also to market the growth of their yields.


So, at the moment we see two targets for the euro's decline: the November 23, 2020 low (1.1900) and the November 1, 2020 low (1.1745).


The price settled under the balance and MACD lines on the four-hour chart, while the Marlin oscillator is falling into the negative zone, the trend is decreasing, and we are waiting for the quote to advance to the specified targets.

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