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Hot forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair on August 25. COT report. Boring, corrective Monday. Will the dollar



The EUR/USD pair continued to move up as part of an upward correction on the hourly timeframe on August 24, and it only began a smooth decline by the end of the trading day. The price without any effort managed to overcome the Senkou Span B line, which is considered the strongest among all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator. Thus, there was no rebound from it, and the quotes did not manage to go above the Kijun-sen line. The price eventually settled below the Senkou Span B line, so the downward movement resumed with targets in the area of 1.1702-1.1727.



The lower linear regression channel turned up on the 15-minute timeframe, however, this may be a round of an upward correction, which may already be completed. A new Commitments of Traders (COT) report was released last Friday. According to this report, non-commercial traders were extremely calm during the reporting week (August 12-18). During this period, the "non-commercial" category of traders, which is considered the most important, closed 4,500 Buy-contracts and 4,500 Sell-contracts. Thus, the net position for this category of professional players has not changed at all. And along with it, the mood of traders has not changed either. Thus, the COT report still does not give any reason to assume the end of the upward trend. Even if we take into account the fact that the pair fell by 200 points in the period from 19 to 21 August, it still does not change anything. During the current upward trend, which has been forming for three months, the pair has already lost 200 points. This value continues to remain small, since the overall growth of the pair during this period reached around 1200 points. Thus, it is difficult to call 200 points of decline a correction. Therefore, even considering that the last three trading days were not included in the COT report, we still cannot expect a sharp change in mood from non-commercial traders. As you can see, the pair itself is reluctantly getting cheaper.

Fundamental background for the EUR/USD pair was simply absent. During the past day, no interesting news and messages were at the disposal of traders. Thus, market participants can only wait for important and interesting information on the China-US trade confrontation, which threatens to turn into a Cold War, as well as coronavirus, US elections, and agreeing on a new package of economic assistance to the American economy. No macroeconomic publications from the United States and the EU are scheduled for Tuesday. Thus, the pair can continue to trade in a very calm direction, with low volatility.

Based on the above, we have two trading ideas for August 25:

1) Bulls continue to take profits on previously opened trades and do not intend to return to the market in the near future. The pair dropped below the Senkou Span B line again and may continue to fall. Thus, in order for the upward trend to resume, the quotes must return to the area above the 1.1886-1.1910 range. In this case, we will recommend buying the euro again with the target at the resistance level of 1.2051. Take Profit in this case will be up to 110 points.

2) Bears have finally seized the initiative in the market and are slowly pulling down the pair. However, so far, more and more depends on the bulls, which simply continue to take profits on long positions. Nevertheless, we advise you to continue selling the pair with the target of the support area 1.1702-1.1727, as traders managed to overcome the Senkou Span B line (1.1835) again. Potential Take Profit in this case is 60-70 points.

Explanations for illustrations:

Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.

Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.

Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -