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Expert In



GBP/USD: plan for the European session on August 20 (analyzing yesterday's trades). British pound remains very weak. COT

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Which was exactly what I needed to prove. The growth of the British pound, which we have seen recently, was entirely based on the US dollar's weakness. Any prerequisites for strengthening the dollar have a very strong pressure on the pound. As for yesterday's entry points into the market, sales continued in the afternoon. In my forecast, I recommended returning to short positions after an unsuccessful attempt to settle above the 1.3212 level, which happened. On the 5-minute chart, you can see how the bears go below 1.3212, forming a new wave of the pound falling to the support area of 1.3173, where I have already recommended opening long positions immediately on the rebound, which brought about 30 points of profit. The repeated return and settling below the 1.3173 level and the test on the reverse side of which took place after Federal Reserve minutes was released, also formed a new entry point into short positions, which led to another wave of the pound's collapse to the area of the low of 1.3126.

At the moment, the bulls are focused on protecting the support of 1.3075, and only a false breakout forming on it will be a signal to open long positions in anticipation of an upward correction to the high of 1.3126. An equally important task for buyers, to correct the overall picture, will be settling above 1.3126 and GBP/USD growing to a high of 1.3164, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a breakout of the 1.3075 support, it is best to refrain from buying until the 1.3044 low has been updated, or to open long positions immediately for a rebound from the 1.3007 support in anticipation of a correction of 30-40 points within the day. Let me remind you that there was a reduction in short non-commercial positions from the level of 60,704 to the level of 59,874 in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for the previous week. On the contrary, long non-commercial positions rose from the level of 45,977 to the level of 48,053. As a result, the non-commercial net position again decreased its negative value to 2,821 against 14,727. This suggests that the market trend is about to change in the near future and control will go to the side of buyers of the pound in the medium term.


To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

Sellers of the pound will try to push the pair to support 1.3075, which will be the main struggle in the first half of the day. It is best to open short positions only after settling below this level, which forms a good entry point in anticipation of updating the low of 1.3044. The 1.3007 area will be the long-term goal of sellers, where I recommend taking profits. However, a more acceptable scenario for opening short positions will be implemented in case of an upward correction to the resistance of 1.3126, where you can sell the pound if a false breakout forms. You are advised to postpone short positions on the rebound until the test of a large high of 1.3164 in anticipation of a correction of 30-40 points within the day. There are also moving averages that are already playing on the side of sellers of the pound.


Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that a bearish correction will form.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.

Bollinger Bands

In case the pound falls further, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator at 1.3044. It is possible to sell the pound immediately on a rebound from the upper border at 1.3212.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • The MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages). Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. The 9 period SMA.
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). The period 20.
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • The total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
The material has been provided by InstaForex Company -