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EUR/USD. December 19. Results of the day. What needs to happen for the Senate to approve the impeachment of Donald Trump?

4 hour time-frame

analytics5dfc14f52a009.png

Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 51p - 93p - 35p - 46p - 45p.

Average volatility over the past 5 days: 54p (average).

On Thursday, December 19, the currency pair EUR/USD slightly corrected, after which the data on the results of the meeting of the Bank of England together with the pound fell down again. Although the fall of the Euro currency on Thursday is not too strong, this is enough to keep the new downward trend. In addition, the pair has fixed below the Ichimoku cloud on the current bar, which significantly enhances the "dead cross". Thus, the probability of a further hike down of the euro/dollar pair significantly increased. During today, not a single important macroeconomic report has been published in the States and the European Union, so market participants focused on a very high-profile topic - the impeachment of Donald Trump. We would immediately like to say that no one speaks, but impeachment is serious. Impeachment, like a vote of no confidence, means that the president's actions are not pleasing, which also means that other political forces governing the country are dissatisfied. Yes, the opposition is present in any Parliament, in any government, but there is never a vote of no confidence out of the blue, let impeachment alone. Therefore, no matter who says that the case is "fabricated" by the Democrats, that their main goal is to remove Trump from the presidential race in 2020, and there is no smoke without fire. Even Boris Johnson, who seemed to be opposed by the entire Parliament of Great Britain, who fought with the Prime Minister through the courts, blocked all his proposals and bills, did not fall under a vote of no confidence. Trump became the third president in the history of the United States, which was impeached. However, only in the House of Representatives so far. Now, the case will be put to a vote in the Senate, and 67 out of 100 senators will have to vote in favor for Donald Trump to become the first president in US history to be removed from office. The House of Representatives had previously impeached Andrew Johnson (1868) and Bill Clinton (1998), both of whom were subsequently acquitted by the Senate. Two cases in a 250-year history. Thus, this further confirms the fact that impeachments in the United States are not scattered just like that. However, 53 out of 100 senators are Republicans, so Trump will most likely be sentenced. Moreover, he will remain at the helm of the country, and the only question will be: how much will his political ratings suffer from the impeachment investigation ahead of next year's presidential election?

However, the theoretical chances of Trump resigning by the Senate still remain. The further impeachment procedure will be as follows: a trial will be held a little later (the date is still unknown) in which 100 senators will play the role of a jury, while the head of the trial will be headed by the chairman of the US Supreme Court. Of course, new details of the investigation may surface during this "trial", witnesses and participants in the case may come up with new information. For example, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said he would be happy to testify in the Senate while considering the impeachment of President Donald Trump, if required by law and the situation. Thus, we are almost certain that there will still be new information on the "Trump case". At the same time, it should be further understood that the Senate has the right not to explain its decision, and any evidence of Trump's guilt is rejected and deemed insufficient. Nevertheless, their decision should still be consistent with the charges and evidence. If there will be undeniable evidence of Trump's guilt during the new trial, which will be made available to the whole country and the whole world, then the Senate will not be able to simply take and vote against impeachment. If this happens, then the confidence in the Republicans may be lost for many years, as the Americans will understand that the Senate votes against impeachment solely on a party basis, that is, it is unfair. Thus, there is a nominal 10% probability that Trump will still be dismissed. In this regard, everything will depend on new information on the case of abuse of power and obstruction of the work of Congress.

Today can be described as weakly volatile and almost flat, despite the fall of the European currency at the American trading session. From the maximum to the minimum of the day, there are only 34 points, so this indicator does not reach the average volatility, and not one of the levels of volatility is likely to be reached today. Tomorro, annual data on GDP will be published in the United States, which are potentially important information, so more active trading of the euro / dollar pair is possible on Friday.

Trading recommendations:

The pair EUR/USD continues the downward trend. Thus, short positions with a target of 1.1062 are now relevant. At the same time, the pair only now overcame the Ichimoku cloud, while the consolidation under it is not too confident. Thus, we recommend trading in lower lots in small lots. In addition, it is recommended to buy a pair of euro / dollar not earlier than the back fixation of the bulls above the Kijun-sen line with the first target resistance level of 1.1196.

Explanation of the illustration:

Ichimoku indicator:

Tenkan-sen is the red line.

Kijun-sen is the blue line.

Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.

Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.

Chikou Span - green line.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

3 yellow lines.

MACD indicator:

Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicators window.

Support / Resistance Classic Levels:

Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.

Pivot Level:

Yellow solid line.

Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:

Gray dotted lines without price designations.

Possible price movement options:

Red and green arrows.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com