Global macro overview for 11/09/2017:
The main event of the week will be CPI Inflation data release from the US on Thursday. This is the last chance to reaffirm the Fed's hypothetical price weakness. The market expects a rebound from 1.7% in July to 1.8% and the disappointment here will turn into a conviction that next week the Fed will rule out a rate hike in December (although the start of the balance sheet normalization at the next FOMC meeting is not threatened). Resetting market expectations to a hike (now at 32% according to CME FedWatch Tool) will pull the USD down. In the coming days, we will also receive data on August retail sales and industrial production (on Friday). The sales should maintain solid growth rate from July with the greatest attention to so-called "control group", which enters the GDP calculation. Industrial production has recently been secondary, but the US Dollar will be more vulnerable to worse than expected readings. In conclusion, very interesting week for the US markets and many ongoing developments might get terminated, especially after the Hurricane Irma impact on US GDP will be estimated.
Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture on the H4 time frame. After a bounce from the weekly support at the level of 107.30, the price is now moving higher towards the next technical resistance at the level of 109.41. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 108.12- 108.27, nevertheless as long as the zone between the levels of 110.61 - 111.04 is not clearly violated the bears remain in full control over this market.
