Global macro overview for 03/05/2017:
The ADP Employment report might be again a good proxy before the NFP Payrolls Friday data release. The global investors expect a decrease in a number of newly employed people in the USA, excluding workers in the farming industry, from 263k to 176k for the reported month. This is a sharply softer growth rate relative to the strong gain that ADP reported for March. That downturn looks troublsome, but it is worth to notice, that the official US government's estimate for private payrolls in April is expected to post a substantial rebound, rising 189k – double the gain versus a March increase. In conclusion, if the projections are correct, then the labor market is still in a relatively good shape and it is growing at a steady pace, but not in danger of overheating yet.
Let's now take a look at the US Dollar index technical picture on the daily time frame. After breaking below the golden trend line, the price is now at a critical level. The index is trading around the 200 DMA in a narrow horizontal range between the levels of 98.68 and 99.35. The gap (marked as a gray rectangle) still hasn't been filled yet, so any bullish rally towards the golden trend line from the downside and an eventual gap fill must occur in an impulsive fashion. Otherwise, the market will be in danger of extending the fall towards the next important daily support at the level of 95.89.
